Présidentielle : comment Marine Le Pen pourrait remporter le second tour malgré son statut d’outsider

Présidentielle : comment Marine Le Pen pourrait remporter le second tour malgré son statut d’outsider

Arrivée derrière Emmanuel Macron lors du premier tour, la candidate FN est donnée battue dans les sondages. Pourtant, la donne pourrait changer durant l’entre-deux-tours, estiment certains observateurs interrogés par franceinfo.

Donnée largement perdante face à Emmanuel Macron dans les sondages au second tour, la candidate du Front national a pourtant encore des cartes à jouer, rappellent certains observateurs interrogés par franceinfo. Même s’il faudrait que ces éléments se mettent tous en place en même temps.

En profitant d’une forte abstention des électeurs de gauche

La candidate recueillerait 38% des suffrages le 7 mai, contre 62% pour son concurrent, indique un sondage réalisé par Ipsos/Sopra Steria pour France Télévisions et Radio France* après le premier tour. Mais pour Serge Galam, physicien et chercheur au Cevipof (centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po), les sondages oublient de prendre en compte l’abstention.

Or, celle-ci sera moindre pour Marine Le Pen que pour son adversaire au second tour, expliquait à franceinfo, en mars, celui qui avait prédit l’élection de Donald Trump dès l’été 2016. C’est ce que le scientifique nomme l’“abstention différenciée”.

“Une part substantielle des électeurs déclarent qu’ils n’iront pas voter (…) pour Emmanuel Macron, mais uniquement contre Marine Le Pen. Et beaucoup ne le feront pas. Pour une partie d’entre eux, l’aversion [pour Emmanuel Macron] sera si forte qu’ils n’iront pas, assure-t-il. A l’inverse, “les électeurs qui ont l’intention de voter Marine Le Pen veulent vraiment voter pour elle, et ils se déplaceront.” Pour lui, une victoire de la candidate frontiste n’est donc “pas impossible”. 

Il faut bien comprendre que Marine Le Pen peut gagner, même avec des intentions de vote inférieures à celles de son adversaire, s’il y a un fort écart entre les taux de participation pour l’un et pour l’autre.

Serge Galam, chercheur

à franceinfo, en mars

Afin d’anticiper ce qui pourrait arriver le 7 mai, Serge Galam a mis au point une formule qui permet de calculer le taux d’abstention des électeurs potentiels d’Emmanuel Macron qui permettrait à Marine Le Pen de l’emporter. Si l’on se réfère aux intentions de vote du sondage Ipsos/Sopra Steria publié dimanche 23 avril, et avec l’hypothèse d’une participation globale de 70%, l’électorat d’Emmanuel Macron devrait se mobiliser à 56% le 7 mai pour que Marine Le Pen soit battue.

Le chercheur s’est montré plus précis, jeudi 26 avril. “Si Marine Le Pen obtient 42% des voix, ce qui n’est pas impossible, contre 58 pour Macron, normalement elle perd l’élection, explique-t-il sur RMC. Mais si 90% des gens qui ont dit qu’ils votaient pour Le Pen le font, et que dans le même temps seulement 65% des gens qui annonçaient qu’il allait voter Macron le font effectivement, c’est alors Marine Le Pen qui gagne l’élection avec un score de 50,07%.”

“Ce n’est pas que les sondages se trompent, précise Serge Galam, c’est qu’ils ne peuvent pas prendre en compte cette abstention inavouée. Il y a des gens qui n’osent pas dire qu’ils vont s’abstenir”. 

En réussissant sa campagne d’entre-deux-tours

“Marine Le Pen n’a pas beaucoup d’atouts dans cette campagne”, prévient d’emblée Emmanuel Rivière, politologue à l’institut de sondage Kantar-Sofres. Mais la candidate compte bien profiter de l’entre-deux-tours pour “peaufiner son image de présidentiable”, souligne Stéphane Zumsteeg, directeur du département opinion et recherche sociale d’Ipsos. Lundi 24 avril, elle a fait savoir qu’elle se retirait provisoirement de la direction du FN. Une décision “habile”, pour Stéphane Zumsteeg, car elle améliore sa “présidentiabilité, puisqu’elle se présente comme la candidate de tous les Français”. Seule, cette mesure ne devrait pourtant pas avoir “d’impact sur le scrutin”.

Pourtant, “les intentions de vote peuvent évoluer. Tout dépendra de la tonalité de campagne des deux candidats, estime le sondeur. Marine Le Pen va probablement adopter une ligne très sociale, qui est celle de Florian Philippot, pour tenter de rallier les électorats de Benoît Hamon et Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Elle devrait aussi se présenter comme une candidate ‘antisystème’.”

En déplacement à Rouvroy (Pas-de-Calais) lundi 24 avril, la candidate frontiste a taclé Emmanuel Macron en l’accusant d’être le candidat “du ‘retourisme'”, c’est-à-dire, selon elle, “le retour des vieilles gloires de la politique française qui ont peu ou prou été coupables de la situation très difficile dans laquelle se trouvent nos compatriotes aujourd’hui”.

La candidate FN pourra d’autant plus réussir sa campagne si son adversaire commet dans le même temps plusieurs impairs, comme c’est le cas depuis dimanche. Emmanuel Rivière assure ainsi qu’Emmanuel Macron “a plein de manières de mettre son avantage en péril. La première est peut-être de donner le sentiment que la victoire est trop facile, et qu’il peut enjamber le second tour.” Ainsi, son discours au soir du premier tour et son dîner polémique à La Rotonde ont déjà marqué négativement sa campagne.

En étant convaincante lors du débat

“Vous n’avez pas le monopole du cœur”, “l’homme du passif”, “Moi, président de la République”… Les débats télévisés de l’entre-deux-tours sont ponctués de phrases chocs. Mais pèsent-ils pour autant sur le scrutin ? Oui, à en croire Frédéric Dabi, qui explique que, selon un sondage de l’Ifop,“les débats sont les deuxièmes vecteurs d’information des électeurs”, juste derrière les émissions politiques et devant les journaux télévisés.

Mais “les duels du second tour ne déjouent jamais les pronostics, rappelle Emmanuel Rivière. Je ne crois pas tellement que le débat, seul, soit suffisant pour renverser l’écart entre les candidats. Sauf si, d’ici là, le score s’est vraiment resserré.”

Stéphane Zumsteeg, de l’Ifop, rappelle qu’Emmanuel Macron devra néanmoins se méfier de son adversaire. Malgré deux prestations peu réussies lors des précédents débats, la candidate du Front national sait se montrer plus efficace lors de ces rendez-vous télévisés.

En voyant la thématique sécuritaire ressurgir dans la campagne

En 2002, l’affaire “Papy Voise”, un vieil homme agressé dans sa maison, trois jours avant le premier tour de la présidentielle, a souvent été mise en avant pour expliquer l’accession au second tour de Jean-Marie Le Pen. “De tels événements peuvent amplifier des tendances existantes, mais ils n’ont pas bouleversé les rapports de force politiques pour autant”, assure Frédéric Micheau, directeur du département opinion et politique d’OpinionWay.

Lire la suite sur francetvinfo.fr

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